Pension at retirement iTotal DC pension pot value at the start of the selected retirement age — sum of contributions + investment growth, in today's money (real).
£518,200
ISA at retirement iISA balance at the start of the selected retirement age, in today's money. Capped at £20k/yr contributions.
£112,257
Other at retirement iBalance of the Other pot (GIA / crypto / gold) at retirement age, in today's money. Tax on this pot is NOT modelled.
£0
Monthly target spend iNet (after-tax) monthly spend target at retirement age. From the Spending section — flat figure or the matching age band.
£4,000
1st shortfall age iFirst age at which the combined pots + State Pension + DB pension can no longer fully cover the monthly target spend. '—' means no shortfall before end age.
71
Pots exhausted iAge at which Pension + ISA + Other + Cash all hit zero. '—' means at least one pot survives until end age.
71
Remaining at end age iTotal wealth (Pension + ISA + Other + Cash) at the end age set in Personal. Real terms (today's money).
£0
Total tax paid iSum of UK income tax over all retirement years. Each year combines State Pension + DB + grossed-up pension drawdown into one taxable income, then applies: Personal Allowance £12,570 (0%) → 20% up to £50,270 → 40% above. ISA, Other, and Cash withdrawals are tax-free. NI, CGT, and dividend tax are not modelled.
£136,964
Risk iHeuristic rating: LOW = pots survive past end age with margin; MEDIUM = exhausts close to end age; HIGH = shortfall years before end age. Not a probability — change inputs to stress-test.
High
Sequence-of-returns stressiApplies a stylised bad-returns sequence to pension/ISA/Other from pension access age. Tests how robust your plan is to a poorly-timed crash. Stylised — illustrative magnitudes informed by historical episodes, not exact replays. Different from Monte Carlo (a distribution); when both are on, MC samples noise around the stressed mean.
Tip: click any point on a chart to see the full income, tax, and pot breakdown for that age.
Balances over time
Cash
ISA
Other
Pension
Total
Annual income vs target
Delivered
Shortfall
State Pension
Target
Monte Carlo simulation iRe-runs the projection 500 times with stochastic year-to-year returns. Each path samples lognormal returns per growth asset (pension/ISA/Other) with cross-asset correlation (≈0.7 pension-ISA, ≈0.5 pension-Other, ≈0.4 ISA-Other) so diversification isn't overstated. If a sequence-of-returns stress mode is set, that overlay is baked into each MC path's mean before noise is added. Cash stays deterministic. Set sigma=0 for any asset to disable variance there.
Click "Run Monte Carlo" to simulate 500 stochastic paths using the sigma settings below. Re-runs whenever you change inputs.
Volatility (sigma) — used by Monte Carlo only iAnnual standard deviation of real return per asset. Determines how wide the cone of outcomes spreads. Set 0 for any asset to make Monte Carlo deterministic for that pot. Defaults reflect historical UK figures: pension ~12%, ISA ~8%, Other ~10%. Cash is always deterministic.
Scenario comparison
Retire
Pension
ISA
Spend
1st shortfall
Exhausted
Remaining
Tax paid
Risk
55
£451,229
£97,570
£4,000/mo
66
66
£0
£106,486
High
57
£518,200
£112,257
£4,000/mo
71
71
£0
£136,964
High
60
£627,706
£135,265
£4,000/mo
81
81
£0
£203,890
High
65
£837,307
£176,375
£4,000/mo
—
—
£556,819
£231,151
Low
67
£931,777
£193,844
£4,000/mo
—
—
£929,374
£194,832
Low
Low — no shortfall and money left at end age.Medium — pots last to end age, but some monthly shortfall along the way (or first shortfall ≥ age 85).High — pots run out before end age, or first shortfall before age 85.
Accuracy note: the planner uses HMRC rules for 2026-27 (income tax, PA taper, additional rate, National Insurance, ISA / pension annual allowance, MPAA, Pension Commencement Lump Sum cap; Scottish bands available via the residence picker). For a complete list of what is and is NOT modelled (e.g. tapered AA above £260k, carry-forward, per-spouse separate tax), see the guide's transparency section.